The oddity of European politics is that Britain is moving sharply to the Left while most of the Continent is moving even further to the Right. In Britain, young people and even the middle aged are abandoning Conservatism. Elsewhere in Europe, the young are the pillars of a radical Right-wing upsurge. On the Continent, the cause is largely frustration with the consequences of being in the EU. In Britain, it is largely a backlash against being out of it.  

The political struggles of the last few years have centred on demands to “take back control” by populists and resistance to that demand by elites. Growing numbers of citizens across Europe are realising that membership of the EU brings economic stagnation, political impotence and social upheaval. The Eurozone’s financial policies and the heavy-handed regulation of the economy have turned Europe into a low-growth or no-growth zone. The failure to control its borders has made immigration a burning topic. Mass protests and even violence have had little effect, so voters are moving to the populist Right. As President Macron repeatedly emphasises, it is the EU that is at stake, and his uncompromising pro-EU stance is a prime cause of his unpopularity.  

Brexit was the first successful revolt – though Europe’s voters (in Italy, France, Greece, the Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland and elsewhere) had repeatedly voted against the EU, and Macron told Andrew Marr in 2018 that the French would “probably” have voted to Leave if they had been given the chance.  

Why was Britain the first to make a clean break? One reason is that it had in some ways gone furthest towards integration. The British state was an obedient adopter of “gold plated” EU regulations, often ignored or openly disobeyed elsewhere. In the crucial area of “free movement”, Tony Blair had allowed – by miscalculation and the desire to make a big gesture – a huge inflow of workers from the time the Eastern Europeans first joined the EU. France and Germany delayed, and still maintain other ways of keeping jobs for native workers, from plumbers (who need the “right” qualifications) to professors (who are civil servants and hence citizens).  

So the British, with the Greeks and the Italians, were early rebels. Crucially, not using the euro, Britain could actually leave, rather than rioting but staying. The euro is the stumbling block for Continental Eurosceptics. Talk of leaving terrifies the middle class, whose savings are endangered. Sudden realisation of this put paid to Marine Le Pen’s “Frexit” rhetoric overnight.  

When the Brexit vote met stubborn resistance from most of the British elite, resulting in years of political and emotional turmoil, Continental Euroscepticism ground to a halt. Post-Brexit confusion – played up shamelessly by the EU media – made membership seem a lesser evil. So Euroscepticism evolved the strategy of taking over the EU from within. Hence the rise of the populist Right.  

If one definition of populism is the provision of simple answers to complex questions, then Britain risks being steered by a populist Left, with Brexit as its scapegoat and closer ties to the EU its panacea. There is no rational reason now for the UK to seek alignment, under whatever name, with the EU. We are saving £20 billion plus in budgetary contributions – over £1,000 a year per family, far more than any marginal loss of trade. The British Left – including the most Europhile elements such as the Greens – will find European politics (once they start noticing them) decreasingly congenial. Above all, the disasters predicted by “Project Fear” not only did not happen, but the British economy is as good or better than that of the Eurozone. Trade with the EU has not measurably declined, while opportunities for trade with more dynamic regions have opened up.  

A recent Opinium poll shows that 56 per cent of the electorate nevertheless think Brexit was economically harmful. Yet only 32 per cent want to rejoin: the diehard Remainers often with an ideological commitment or economic interest. It is the other 24 percent – those who regret but do not want to rejoin – who will decide this week’s election. These are the people who will not be voting Conservative, a mass of disillusioned voters who are not pro-EU, but have been persuaded by eight years of unscrupulous propaganda that Brexit has failed.  

This is demonstrably false, as is seen in the latest official figures, which show trade in goods stable and in services buoyant. But who in the government, with the exception of Kemi Badenoch, is ever heard saying this? The Remainers in the Conservative Party will not defend Brexit. They have allowed negative propaganda to go unchecked, even from their own officials. Rather than defending their party’s most important act in 14 years of government, they allow it to be used as a weapon by the opposition. They are the authors of their own defeat, and will share the blame for the ensuing damage.  

Given the fervour of their core supporters, a Starmer government will have to make at least a token effort to “improve relations” with the EU. As we have seen since 2016, when Remainers of whatever party negotiate with the EU, the outcome is costly and has unanticipated downsides. Will Brussels be nicer to Labour? “I fear the Greeks even when they bring gifts”.