It is one of the most intense and multifaceted rivalries in world sport: the English, or sometimes the British, against their former colony Australia. From cricket to rugby to track cycling to lawn bowls, duels between British and Australian teams and athletes have been a defining feature of many international sporting events for over a century.

But, at the Paris Olympics, the Australians suddenly, and somewhat unexpectedly, have the upper hand. With one day remaining, the Australian Olympic team are sitting in third place, four gold medals ahead of the British. That is a significant change from Games past.

Despite Britain having a population about two and a half times that of Australia, the sporting rivalry has traditionally been finely balanced. Except at the Olympics, where the Australians were once ascendant. At Atlanta 1996, the British ended the Olympics with a solitary single gold medal – Australia had nine. At Sydney 2000, the Australians finished fourth, six places and five gold medals above the British. The Australians were ahead again in Athens.

More recently, the narrative has shifted. The awarding of the 2012 Games galvanised British interest, and lottery funding, for Olympic sports. At the 2008 Olympics, the British surged ahead. Then on home soil, team GB won a mammoth 29 gold medals – 21 ahead of the Australians, who languished in eighth. The British did even better in ranking terms at Rio, finishing second, their most successful Games in over a century. Australia, meanwhile, scraped into 10^th.

Over the past two Olympics, the tide has turned back. Only five gold medals and two placings separated the British and the Australians in Tokyo. And after their gold medal bonanza in Paris, the nation’s best-ever Games, the Australians now lead the British.

If that order stands, with only one day of action remaining, it will be the first time Australia has bettered Great Britain at the Olympics in two decades. A generation of British sporting dominance is waning, and the Australians are ready to rule the rivalry once more.

In some respects this is unsurprising. Olympic success is cyclical and a home Games boost is commonplace; the increase in interest and funding that follows cannot last forever. Perhaps this is the medal recession the British had to have – managed decline, even. And unfortunately for the British, it has coincided with a resurgent Australian team.

Australia had its equal-best ever performance in Tokyo, and has now eclipsed that in Paris. With a funding boost in the order of a few hundred million dollars on the way, as all eyes turn towards Australia’s home Olympics in Brisbane in eight years’ time, it seems the old order has returned.

In Paris, nowhere was that changing state of affairs more evident than in the men’s team pursuit. Britain won gold in the discipline at Beijing 2008. They defended their crown at home in 2012, fending off Australia in the gold medal ride, before winning a third consecutive gold, again over Australia, with a record-breaking effort in Rio. After a contested relegation denied Britain a chance to defend gold in Tokyo, they arrived in Paris eager to continue their dominance – only to be upstaged.

Australia’s squad were unheralded, following a lean spell for Australian track cycling. But at the velodrome, the green and gold quartet shocked the world – qualifying first, two-tenths of a second faster than the British, and then breaking the world record in the first round.

It set up a mouth-watering clash in the gold medal ride. The kings of the team pursuit for so long, against the nation that had so often been left with silver. The teams were neck-and-neck, with barely one thousandth of a second separating them, before the Australians pushed Britain to breaking point. It was a victory imbued with symbolism; after a decade and a half of British marginal gains (or even “one massive big gain,” as a British Cycling source once told the Guardian), the Australians have caught up.

It was true in the pool, too, where Britain won just one gold medal. Breaststroke king Adam Peaty was dethroned, possibly undermined by a Covid infection. Sure, Britain has never been a swimming superpower. But the nation won a historic four golds, three silver and one bronze in Tokyo. A reversion to the mean, certainly, but an underwhelming showing all the same – while the Australian Dolphins won seven golds.

On the penultimate day in Paris, legendary track cyclist Anna Meares – Australia’s chef de mission at the Games – was asked about the rivalry. It is a thing Meares knows about first-hand, having long battled with British track queen Victoria Pendleton. That rivalry reached its height at the London Olympics, when Meares upset Pendleton in the sprint gold medal round.

“Great Britain are a formidable opponent,” Meares said. She acknowledged her British counterpart, Mark England, who is retiring after Paris. Meares, a first-time chef de mission, said England had been professionally supportive, and recently congratulated her on Australia’s success.

“We all come here as comrades,” Meares said. “But we love the fierce competition. We love the rivalry that comes. They make us better, for having that rivalry.”