Newsflash: Hiring across the US accelerated last month, with many more jobs created than expected.
The US non-farm payroll rose by 254,000 in September, new data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.
That’s better than expected, and will be welcomed in the White House as a sign that the US economy is not weakening.
The BLS says:
Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction.
The US unemployment rate has fallen, to 4.1% from 4.2% the previous month.
August’s non-farm payroll has been revised up too, from +142,000 to +159,000.
Key events
Closing post
Time to wrap up, after a lively week.
American employers added 254,000 jobs last month in the penultimate jobs report before the US election, defying fears of a slowdown in the labor market.
Job creation unexpectedly accelerated in September, while the headline unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% in August.
Economists had forecast a non-farm payrolls reading of around 132,500 for September, after a cooler summer of employment growth.
Hiring instead rose sharply from recent months. In August employers added 159,000 jobs, and in July, they added 144,000.
Both estimates for July andAugust were revised higher by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday – adding 72,000 more jobs than previously reported – highlighting the strength of the labor market.
The strong jobs report lifted shares on Wall Street, and sent the dollar flying to a seven week high, dragging down the pound.
Sterling is now firmly on track for its worst week since February 2023, having dropped by around 2% or two and a half-cents this week.
It had rallied, before the jobs report, after the Bank of England’s chief economist warned against cutting interest rates “too far or too fast”.
Huw Pill said there should be a gradual reduction in interest rates to make sure inflation remains near the Bank’s 2% target, a day after the governor, Andrew Bailey, said the central bank could move “more aggressively” to lower borrowing costs.
Today’s jobs report for September suggests the labor market remains strong, says the White House’s council of economic advisers, here:
The dollar is trading at a seven-week high after the jobs report, as traders conclude that a second ‘jumbo’ interest rate cut next month is now very unlikely.
The dollar index has reached 102.65, the highest since August 16, and is on track for its best weekly percentage gain since September 2022.
Last month’s surging in US jobs suggests the Fed needs to tread carefully, say analysts at ING.
In a research note, they explain:
The US jobs report was incredibly strong on every front possible – job creation, unemployment, wages and hours worked. Nonetheless, caution lingers given the lack of corroborating data.
While the inflation backdrop is allowing the Fed to start moving monetary policy back to neutral, we think it will be in 25bp incremements, not the 50bp we saw in September.
Back in the UK, the government has welcomed the pick-up in construction sector activity last month (see earlier post).
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones says:
“We are focused on restoring economic stability and rebuilding Britain. This boost in business activity is clearly a positive sign, but there is more to be done as we drive towards growth as our number one mission.
“That’s why the Budget on 30 October will be about fixing the foundations of our economy so we can begin to deliver on the promise of change.”
The surge in homebuilding activity last month may be thanks to the government’s housing drive.
A gauge of housebuilding rose to its highest since March 2022, boosted by government plans to build 1.5 million new homes over the next five years to fix Britain’s housing crisis.
Joe Biden: Jobs report is good news for American families
President Joe Biden has welcomed today’s jobs report, saying:
Today, we received good news for American workers and families with more than 250,000 new jobs in September and unemployment back down at 4.1%. With today’s report, we’ve created 16 million jobs, unemployment remains low, and wages are growing faster than prices.
Under my Administration, unemployment has been the lowest in 50 years, a record 19 million new businesses have been created, and inflation and interest rates are falling.
And we’re seeing the power of collective bargaining to lift up workers’ wages—including the progress made by dockworkers on record wages with carriers, and port operators and the reopening of East Coast and Gulf ports. Make no mistake: We have more to do to lower costs and expand opportunity. Congress should pass our plan to build millions of new homes, expand prescription drug price caps, empower workers and protect the right to organize, and cut taxes for hardworking families.
Congressional Republicans have a different plan—more giant tax cuts for billionaires and big corporations, ending the Affordable Care Act, undermining workers by cutting overtime and making it harder to organize, and imposing a national sales tax that would raise costs by nearly $4,000 per year. While they put billionaires first, we’ll keep fighting to grow the middle class.
Financial stocks are among the top risers on the Dow Jones industrial average, with JPMorganChase up 2.2%, AmericanExpress rising 1.8% and GoldmanSachs up 1%.
High interest rates have been good for bank profits (despite leading to a rise in bad debts), and today’s strong jobs report suggests they may not fall as quickly as expected.
Amazon (+1.8%) and Caterpillar (+1.55%) are also among the risers.
Wall Street rallies after strong jobs report
Stocks have jumped on Wall Street at the start of trading, as investors hail today’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report.
The DowJonesindustrialaverage gained 233 points at the open, up 0.55% to 42,244 points.
The broader S&P 500 index gained 0.75%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq is up 1.2%.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, says hopes are rising for a “goldilocks scenario” for the US economy, explaining:
“The US jobs market appears to have been infused with confidence in September, with new hirings shooting past expectations and the unemployment rate edging down. Fed policymakers had been worried about the potential for the jobs market to rapidly cool off, which is why they opted for a super-size rate cut last month. These latest numbers will help assuage those worries and add to a picture of a resilient US economy, which appears to be heading for a soft landing.
Financial markets are pricing in the chances of a cut in November at 93%, but are putting bets on a more usual 0.25% reduction. As expectations have retreated for a bigger rate cut, it’s helped push the dollar to a seven-week high, and Wall Street looks set to end the week on an upbeat note.
September’s strong jobs report should calm fears about the state of the US jobs market, says Janet Mui, head of market analysis at wealth manager RBC Brewin Dolphin:
“September’s non-farm payroll report, particularly the fall in the unemployment rate, should remove any near-term concerns on the state of the US labour market.
The combination of strong job creation and wage growth (both nominal and adjusted for inflation) is supportive to US consumption. With inflation heading in the right direction and ongoing expansion in the US economy, this should increase confidence that a soft-landing is coming to realisation, barring any shock.
While low inflation will allow the Fed to keep cutting rates, this strong set of results should reduce the likelihood of another outsized rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.”
The surging dollar has now dragged the pound down to a new three-week low of $1.3070.
The chances of the Federal Reserve making another jumbo cut to interest rates next month have collapsed.
According to CME Fedwatch, the odds of a half-point cut by the Fed in November are just 10%, down from over 30% before September’s strong jobs report was released.
A smaller, quarter-point cut is now 90% likely.
US jobs report beats forecasts: What the experts say
Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, says:
“That was quite some jump in US payrolls in September, almost off the scale relative to expectations, and earnings were up more than anticipated as well. This is without question a strong jobs report.
“US employment data has been the focal point for bond and equity markets for the last two months and that will continue to be the case as everyone tries to second guess Fed policy. As it stands, a 0.5% cut must now be off the cards at their next meeting, although we do have one more jobs report before then – guess what we’ll all be looking at!”
Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, agrees that the jobs report is stronger than expected:
“Today’s jobs figures have exceeded expectations, indicating a high level of demand in the labour market, reversing a recent trend. At the last Fed meeting, Jerome Powell emphasised that the slowdown in job growth was the key factor behind the decision to kick off the easing cycle with a larger-than-normal rate cut. Powell indicated that the “balance of risks” to the US economy has shifted—implying that supporting the job market has taken precedence over fighting inflation.
Today’s jobs figures suggest the Fed’s action is working well to support its full-employment mandate. With high inflation largely in the rearview mirror, this could be less good news for markets, as it may slow the pace of future rate cuts.”
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, says such a strong jobs report means the Fed can’t consider another large cut to interest rates at its next meeting:
“Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50bps?
The monster upside surprise suggests that the labor market may actually be a picture of strength, not weakness, and it completely dismisses the idea that the Fed could even contemplate another 50bps cut in November.
As jobless claims, the Challenger survey, and the multitude of strong economic data have been suggesting, the U.S economy is still robust. And with Fed easing now underway, recession risk has collapsed. Markets will need to keep a closer eye on inflation as, now, there are policy risks on both sides of the economy.”