Drivers heading to Dover could face jams of up to 15 hours at peak times when new EU post-Brexit border checks launch this year, under one scenario being considered by Government planners, i understands.

The modelling predicts the impact of the Entry/Exit System (EES), which will introduce biometrics checks at the border for non-EU travellers.

It is understood to be largely in line with worst-case scenarios already identified by Kent authorities.

Ministers are understood to be preparing a public information campaign to advise travellers how to prepare. It is expected to advise families who could be stuck in cars for hours to ensure they have enough supplies including water, food and nappies when travelling.

The EES digital system will require fingerprints and photographs from non-EU travellers at French border posts at Dover ferry port, Eurotunnel at Folkestone, and Eurostar at St Pancras. It will replace manual stamping of passports.

However, as the biometric information is recorded and checked, it is set to mean longer processing times, which has led to warnings of gridlock on Kent roads as travellers head to Europe.

In January, MPs on the European Scrutiny Committee were warned by Ashford Borough Council that EES could cause queues of 15 hours or more, with the local authority highlighting tailbacks clogging up roads to Dover in summer 2022.

It is now understood the Department for Transport (DfT) has data which supports this scenario. However, it believes that in a reasonable worst-case scenario, a high level of driver compliance could limit the disruption to a maximum car queue of 90 minutes – even on busiest peak days.

That modelling is based on drivers using the correct lanes and all parties including the Port of Dover working together to reduce delays.

The Government said its priority now was to ensure the country is “fully prepared” by working with local authorities and agencies, the European Commission and the travel industry.

Councils in Kent have written to ministers demanding urgent action to tackle disruption from EES, warning of massive congestion and food-supply problems once the IT checks go live, which is expected to be in November.

In July’s letter, cross-party council leaders called on the Government to share its own modelling data for a worst-case scenario on traffic, saying the failure to do so had presented “a significant risk to our planning”.

They also urged co-operation with the EU on a technological solution so passengers could be processed away from the port, with testing of iPad-style tablets to carry out checks found to be “wholly unreliable”.

Government decisions on additional infrastructure to remove tourist traffic from roads, so processing can take place before arrival at ports, were also “urgently needed”, as sites would not be ready before July 2025 at the earliest, they said.

A Government spokesperson said at the time that it was reviewing preparations, including ensuring ports and carriers had the right technology and processes in place so EES registration can take place “as smoothly as possible”.  ​

The French border control zone at the Port of Dover is now being expanded to reduce the risk of queues at peak times, with 50 per cent more booths being added.

EES will track travellers to the Schengen Area and allow EU countries to monitor whether non-EU nationals, including Britons, have stayed more than 90 days in a 180-day period.

Once a photo and fingerprints have been logged, they will remain on a person’s system for three years, meaning the same biometrics will not be required each time someone travels.

But there are concerns among industry insiders and MPs about delays to an app being designed by EU member states, which will not be in place when EES goes live this year.

It is hoped the app will help slash travellers’ processing times by allowing them to register details before setting out on their trip.

Nichola Mallon, head of trade at Logistics UK, has raised fears that the app will not be ready by summer 2025 as originally anticipated and that lorry drivers could be stuck for hours in traffic control measures Operation Brock and Dover TAP if tourist traffic blocks roads to the port.

Greg Smith, a shadow transport minister who sat on the Transport Select Committee, called on the Labour Government to push Brussels for a delay to the new biometrics scheme.

“EES is a highly significant change to our border, particularly at sea ports, with huge implications for Kent roads,” Mr Smith told i. “Juxtaposed controls will cause chaos and the French are not even ready to launch the app that will make it easier.

“Labour need to take this far more seriously and get the EU to delay implementation until the whole thing is actually ready.”

In July, i reported how the launch of EES had been delayed again until November.

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Doug Bannister, chief executive of Port of Dover, said the EU had agreed an EES “relief valve” that would allow authorities to “dial down” the number of biometric registrations carried out at gateways during busy periods.

In January, Neil Baker, Kent County Council’s cabinet member for roads, warned of the risk of three years of lorries queuing in Operation Brock on the M20.

Jim Martin, leader of Folkestone and Hythe District Council, said Kent officials had been “in a blind panic” about the impending arrival of EES.

“Effectively, we get what we’re calling road paralysis. So ambulances can’t get through, fire engines can’t get through, children can’t get to school, people can’t make hospital appointments, no-one can go to work,” said the Green Party councillor.

“The freight is well managed, but the tourist traffic is almost impossible to manage in any regulated way, they will cut off, fill all the back roads.”

Lorry drivers queuing in Dover TAP and Operation Brock would see jams lengthening if tourist traffic backed up, leading to further delays, he added.

“Because the M20 gets blocked, everyone’s on Google Maps. So they all start coming down on the M2 to come in from the other side of Dover,” he said.

A DfT spokesperson said: “As a responsible Government we prepare for a range of scenarios and are working to minimise the risk of excessive queue times so that travellers can pass through as quickly and smoothly as possible.

“The Government’s priority now is making sure we are fully prepared. We are expanding the French border control zone at Dover and will continue to work closely with local authorities and agencies, the European Commission and the travel industry to ensure they’re preparing effectively.”