Who will win the Olympics? Most medals and most golds?

The United States are forecast to win the most medals overall (112), by quite some way. Sports data firm Gracenote have released their latest virtual medal based on results data from key competitions since the last Olympics in Tokyo

China are predicted to place second on total medals, but will win five fewer golds than the United States. A total of 86 medals would be three fewer than their tally from Tokyo three year ago.

Great Britain are also on track, according to predictions, to produce a similar medal performance level to the last Olympics, albeit the number of golds will be down from 22 in Tokyo to 17 in Paris..

While France should experience the usual advantageous bounce of being hosts, rising sharply in the medal table to fourth, and third behind the United States and China on gold meals.

Australia are expected to round out the top five with 54 medals, the most by the nation for 20 years since Athens 2004.

With athletes from Russia and Belarus banned from competing internationally in almost all Olympic sports since Feb 2022, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is harder to accurately predict how individuals selected to compete as Individual Neutral Athletes at Paris will fare in terms of medals. With only individuals allowed to compete as neutrals, and not any team events, medals won are expected to be limited. 

Team GB medal predictions for Paris

Despite the smallest cohort of athletes since Beijing in 2008, Team GB are expected to medal across a wider range of sports than ever before. UK Sport has not, however, set exact medal targets, arguing that it places excessive pressure on individual sports and athletes.

The British team of 327 athletes will again include more women than men – 174 to 153 – for an Olympics that will have exact parity in the number of events available to both men and women for the first time.

“I’ve never been more confident in our athletes and our cohort of athletes – it’s just an incredibly talent team – [and] this is the most sophisticated high performance system in the world,” said Mark England, the Team GB chef de mission, who specifically highlighted the emergence of teenagers like the 800m runner Phoebe Gill and skateboarder Sky Brown alongside returning Olympic legends like Adam Peaty and and Tom Daley.