Escalation risks from Russia in response to the US’ missile decision are a threat but dramatic provocations are unlikely given Russia’s current tactics and ongoing efforts to influence international support for Ukraine, an analyst has said.

Military sciences director Matthew Savill of the defence think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said Russia’s rhetoric has been predictably severe, warning of a “new spiral of tension.” But he suggested this is more likely an effort to deter international support for Ukraine rather than a signal of imminent direct confrontation.

Savill pointed out that for the past two years, Russian officials have consistently labeled US and other Western support for Ukraine as “direct involvement” and deemed it “unacceptable.”

He added that Russia has already intensified its assaults, targeting Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, particularly the power grid, alongside conducting sabotage operations.

These actions suggest that while the risk of escalation remains, much of Russia’s “blood-curdling Russian claims are more about signalling than representative of a huge jump in risk.” This is particularly true given Russia’s existing involvement of foreign actors, like North Korea, and its use of Iranian drones to strike Ukraine.

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban has described the US’ missile decision as “astonishingly dangerous.”

Hungary is one of the only nations to still buy Russian gas and Mr Orban makes frequent statements sympathetic to Moscow and Vladimir Putin.

He said: “The military mainstream has made a last, desperate attack on the new reality. These forces do not even seem to be avoiding the worst: expanding the war in Ukraine to global proportions.”

An ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin has vowed to employ “new” military systems against Ukraine if Kyiv uses American long-range missiles to attack Russia.

The head of Russia’s lower house of parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, said that Kyiv has already used long-range missiles to hit Russian targets but did not elaborate on the weaponry.

Mr Volodin went on to say that Ukraine’s continued deployment of the weapons would “completely destroy Russian-American relations.”

Mr Putin previously warned that allowing Kyiv to fire long-range missiles at targets inside Russia would constitute Nato’s direct involvement in the conflict.

The Biden administration’s granting of Kyiv’s request to use the ATACMS missiles outside of its own borders marks a change in stance in the president’s final days in office, before President-elect Donald Trump – who has indicated he will limit US support for Ukraine – returns to the White House in January.

“On his way out of office, Joe Biden is dangerously trying to start WWIII by authorizing Ukraine the use of U.S. long range missiles into Russia,” Greene, who is among the Republicans who want to cut US aid to Ukraine, posted on Sunday.

“The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives,” Trump Jr said.

In reaction to Iran’s delivery of ballistic missiles to Russia, Iran Air, the country’s flag carrier, will have its assets frozen.

The Russian cargo ship PORT OLYA-3 has been sanctioned for transferring missiles from Iran to Russia, and the shipping company Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines has also been sanctioned for its involvement in moving Iranian military equipment.

Foreign secretary David Lammy is expected to address the new sanctions as he speaks at the United Nations Security Council in New York on Monday.

He is expected to say: “Alongside our international partners, we were clear that any transfer of ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia would face a significant response.

“We reiterate our call on Iran to cease its support for Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine which continues to bring devastation to the Ukrainian people. We will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

A Downing Street spokeswoman refused to say whether its ongoing support for Ukraine would include allowing UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to be fired at targets in Russia.

“So, our support in Ukraine is ironclad and will continue on that basis. But as to the specifics of the support that we provide … we won’t get into speculation or a commentary on operational discussions.

“It also remains the case that no war was ever won with one single piece of kit.”

The UK will “double down” to ensure Ukraine is “provided with the support that it needs for as long as it needs”.

A No 10 spokeswoman said: “In recent days we’ve seen (Vladimir) Putin reach new depths of depravity, systematically attacking energy infrastructure, depriving families from warmth and light, and killing civilians through drone and missile attacks in what is an ongoing illegal war.”

Downing Street said the UK Government wanted to put Ukraine in the “strongest possible position going into the winter to defend its sovereign territory”.

We reported earlier on the strike in Odesa and now the casualty figures have gone up.

In a short statement on Telegram, Odesa’s police force says ten people are now confirmed to have been killed following a Russian missile attack.

Of these, they say that seven are “policemen”, another is a medic, and two were “local residents”.

Another 39 people have been injured with “varying degrees of severity” including four children and 14 law enforcement officers, the police force adds.

Joe Biden’s green light, according to US officials, for Ukraine to use US-made long-range missiles to target inside Russia opens the door for the UK to authorise the use of Britain’s own long-range Storm Shadow missiles into Russia.

Storm Shadow is an Anglo-French cruise missile with a maximum range of around 155 miles (250km). The French call it Scalp. After launch, the weapon, equipped with its navigation system, descends to a low altitude to avoid detection before locking on to its target using an infra-red seeker. On the final approach, the missile climbs to a higher altitude to maximise the chances of hitting the target.

Ukrainians in the Black Sea port city of Odesa on Monday morning had been without power for 24 hours and further cuts were planned across the country after a massive Russian missile strike over the weekend damaged energy infrastructure.

Russia unleashed its largest missile attack on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, killing seven people and further hobbling an already damaged energy system.

“The situation is most difficult in Odesa and Odesa district. Unfortunately, it is not yet technically possible to supply power to the critical infrastructure in the Kyivskyi and Primorskyi districts of the city,” power distributor DTEK wrote on the Telegram messenger.

Russia has attacked the Odesa region for months, hitting port and energy infrastructure.